Various commentators have claimed that the advantages associated with autonomous vehicles are so compelling that widespread adoption will occur within the next decade or so, in spite of the layers of complexity – administrative/regulatory as well as technological – associated with this innovation.
Arbib and Seba note that Technology as a Service (TaaS) will cause several disruptions to the current conditions and the institutional paradigms of our economy. Some of these impacts include:
Massive savings in transportation costs will provide boosts in annual disposable income; providing a significant increase in total GDP.
Productivity gains as a result of reduced driving hours will also contribute to significant gains in GDP.
Land could be converted to more productive land uses due to the diminished demand for vehicle intensive real estate.
Nearly 100 million existing vehicles will be abandoned as they become economically unviable.
The diminishing demand for production of traditional vehicles could result in a distinctive disruption in the car value chain; impacting auto dealers, auto maintenance, and auto insurance companies.
Car manufacturers will have to adapt either as low-margin, high volume assemblers of A-EVs, or by becoming TaaS providers. Both strategies will be characterized by high levels of competition, with new entrants from other industries. The value in the sector will be mainly in the vehicle operating systems, computing platforms and the TaaS platforms.
The transportation value chain will deliver 6 billion passenger miles in 2030 (an increase of 50% over 2021) at a quarter of the cost ($393 billion versus $1,481 billion).
Glus, Bhatia, Caglioni, Gaby, Gottschling, lacobucci, Rothman et. al. assert that there are multiple benefits of advanced planning to combat technology disruptions. The most significant benefits include:
Leveraging technology to enhance mobility
Prioritizing and modernizing public transit
Implement dynamic pricing
planning for mixed-use development that embodies car-light neighborhood design
Encouraging adaptable parking, and
Promoting equitable access to new jobs and services
“Cities will soon have to make complex decisions related to infrastructure, urban mobility, land use, and social equity and inclusion as people give up car ownership and take up ridesourcing”